The screen capture above was taken on my iPhone on 7 November 2016, the day before the 2016 presidential election. The 538 site takes its name from the total number of electors in the electoral college. It uses a unique algorithm to calculate an overall statistical aggregation. The view above showed the statistical standing of Clinton vs Trump the day before the 2016 presidential election.
538 showed Clinton having a significant statistical lead over Trump. I voted that day, as I’ve always voted ever since I was old enough in 1972. 538 wasn’t the only site showing Clinton statistically far ahead. Two other sites I followed at the time, Slate and Salon, also had a statistical scoreboard showing Clinton far ahead. Slate’s and Salon’s were far less rigorous in their analysis. The 538 analysis was what I hung my hat on for “the truth” of public sentiment before the election.
Of course we know how 2016 turned out, and we’ve lived the Trumpian nightmare ever since. The day after the 2016 presidential election I immediately stopped following 538, Salon and Slate and I’ve not gone back since. I have no idea how the 2024 presidential election will turn out, especially over a year out from the election. All I know is if we want to keep the insanity out of the White House then we need to take nothing for granted, ignore the polls, and vote as if our very existence as a democracy is at stake, because it is.
Radarwitch
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